The introduction of such duties, announced by the Trump administration, could lead to a drop in freight rates and economic returns also in maritime transport sector.
In particular, the Confitarma Study Center has published a study on the "Possible impacts of US duties on the Italian shipping industry", analyzing the measures that include duties of up to 1.5 million dollars for each stop in the United States of ships built in China or managed by operators with orders from Chinese shipyards. Additional port costs of up to 52 billion dollars are estimated for shipping, with direct repercussions on the competitiveness of the European maritime industry.
For Italy, the US is a strategic commercial partner for exports with over 63 billion euros, of which over 60% transported by sea, as well as for national imports with almost 26 billion euros, of which 45% transported by sea. Almost 100% of imports and 98.2% of Italian exports of tons of goods to and from the US are transported by sea. A reduction in trade relations with the United States would therefore lead to negative consequences for the maritime transport: the duties will penalize in particular container ships and the ports most affected are those in the Tyrrhenian Sea, at the top of which is Genova, that has direct connections to New York, Norfolk and Savannah.
Furthermore, to penalize ocean carriers using Chinese-made vessels to move trade, the U.S. government has proposed steep levies on Chinese-made ships arriving at U.S. ports: a worrying factor, given that over 17% of the Italian fleet is built in China, a share that rises to 84% considering only the new constructions currently ordered by the Italian shipping industry and scheduled for delivery by 2028.
Without forgetting the strong impact expected on the emerging economies of Southeast Asia, that could suffer a drop in demand for maritime transport.
Finally, we must consider other factors of uncertainty for the market such as the evolution of the conflict in Ukraine and the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip with the possibility of safely transiting the Red Sea.
